The form book suggests that if Bafana Bafana defeat Mali in Tuesday’s Afcon clash it will rank as an upset, for several reasons.
The Eagles have a high-quality squad, bolstered by a killer midfield that thrives on pace and penetration. Their three-man midfield ranks among the best at the Africa Cup of Nations.
When South Africa coach Hugo Broos is handed the official team sheets two hours before kick-off, he’ll look on in envy because his opponents have 26 of their 27 players plying their trade in Europe. In stark contrast, 21 of South Africa’s players are drawn from the domestic league.
Mali go into the match on the back of a 6-2 win over fellow Afcon finalists Guinea-Bissau in a recent warm-up match. Before this result, the west Africans completed their two World Cup qualifying games in November with a 3-1 win over Chad and a 1-1 draw against Central African Republic.
Blunt Bafana attack a concern
Before arriving in Ivory Coast, Bafana played to a goalless draw with lowly Lesotho. The team’s blunt and depleted attack was cause for concern and Broos declared: “It was not bad, but it was not good either.”
Éric Chelle, the Mali manager, has sensed that he has a comparatively strong squad.
He has urged his players to earn respect at the Cup of Nations from the time they run out for this evening’s Group E opener against South Africa at the Amadou Gon Coulibaly Stadium in Korhogo.
“The football world laughs at Malian football. So, I told my players to stop making them laugh and show who we are,” said Chelle.
“It doesn’t matter what happens, whether we win or not, but from now on to meet Mali we will have to go there and we will be respected.”
With a world ranking of 51, Mali are ninth in Africa, and they would be expected to account for Bafana, who are 12th in Africa, and 66th in the world.
In head-to-head terms, Mali and South Africa have met in three previous matches. The Eagles have twice triumphed in Afcon quarter-finals (2-0 in 2002 and via penalties after a 1-1 draw in 2013), while Bafana won a friendly 2-1 in Port Elizabeth in 2019.
This is Mali’s 13th participation in the Cup of Nations, their ninth in a row. No side has played as many Afcon games as Mali (54) without ever winning the trophy.
The final hurdle
Their best performance dates back to 1972 when Mali lost 3-2 in the final against Congo.
Mali have never lost their opening game of an Afcon, having won seven and drawn five. However, they have also never won consecutive matches at a single tournament since 2004.
Impressively, only Nigeria (22) scored more goals than Mali (15) in the qualifiers for this year’s Afcon while only Tunisia conceded fewer goals.
This is South Africa’s 11th participation in the Cup of Nations, and their first since 2019.
Their only Afcon title was in 1996 when they won as hosts.
South Africa reached the final four of the tournament in each of their first three tournaments (first in 1996, second in 1998, and third in 2000). Since then, they have never progressed further than the quarter-finals, winning only three of their last 20 matches, having drawn seven and lost 10.
South Africa have not scored more than one goal in their last nine Afcon matches. The last time they did was against Morocco in the 2013 group stages (2-2).
Among the 24 teams that will feature in Afcon 2023, none conceded more goals per game than South Africa in the qualifiers (1.5 per game, six in four games).
IOL Sport