Johannesburg - Could politicking be the reason why we have experienced such low stages of load shedding over the past few weeks?
Energy experts don’t seem to think so.
Rather, experts have pointed to power utility Eskom doing a good job to ensure that lights remain on in the country for most parts of the day.
Despite a surge in stages over the last two days, South Africans have experienced minimal load shedding for several weeks now.
Energy expert Lungile Mashile has credited Eskom for a good job done over the last few weeks.
“The electricity system cares very little for elections and political events,” said Mashele.
“It responds to maintenance, good project management processes and great leadership, which is what we're currently seeing at Eskom.”
Mashele believes things have changed for the better at Eskom.
“The new guard has inspired confidence and a return to good engineering and project management principles.”
She said a number of factors have influenced the reduction in load shedding.
“The diesel load factor is high (24% on average), so Eskom has been burning a lot of diesel,” said Mashele. “Plant UCLF is lower because there are fewer breakdowns in winter because the coal fleet performs better when ambient temperatures are lower. There is also reduced maintenance (PCLF) in winter, this provides additional capacity. There is good project management and a return to engineering principles (Lethabo and Matla EAF were above 95% in June).
She said the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has improved for all these reasons to 58% as of the end of June, and that there has also been reduced winter demand from large industries because winter tariffs can be three or four times more than the summer tariff.
“Winter temperatures have been higher than usual, and so Eskom demand has not been as high as forecast. However, a change in any of these variables will affect load shedding, as we saw with the cold weather and snow in certain parts of the country this week, resulting in increased stages of load shedding.”
Professor Hartmut Winkler, an energy analyst at the University of Johannesburg, said he didn’t believe that politicking had anything to do with the reduction in load shedding.
“It has nothing to do with elections coming up,” said Winkler. “Load shedding has always been a huge negative in the government’s track record, and the government has all along wanted to overcome the electricity crisis (how effective their tactics were is another matter).
“Load shedding is likely to be an issue in next year’s election, and voters are more likely to be swayed by how the grid performs in the first half of next year rather than how it performs now.”
Winkler said a reduction in breakdowns is one of the reasons why we have experienced limited load shedding in recent weeks.
“If we compare Eskom’s power generation statistics for this winter to the same time last year, two factors stand out. Firstly, breakdowns are lower. Demand for electricity from Eskom is lower. Another factor, though smaller than the previous two, is that the country’s wind farms have been substantially more active (in part because several new wind farms were completed in the last year).”
Winkler said, however, that it wasn’t entirely clear why the power plant breakdown rates have gone down.
“An Eskom insider could hopefully provide a more detailed explanation. While improved technical response could have played a role, my sense is that this alone would not achieve this level of improvement so quickly.”
Winkler said he suspected that the reduced breakdowns were also linked to lower sabotage levels, which may be due to a variety of reasons: law enforcement successes and heightened public scrutiny.
“Over the last two years or so, about two stages of load shedding may be attributed to sabotage, so if this has declined, then that would manifest in noticeably better electricity output.
“It is also not easy to explain the lower electricity demand. While there has been a huge amount of solar rooftop installation during the last year – providing an alternative electricity supply outside Eskom to many factories, commercial developments, farms and households, I do not believe that this alone would explain the level of decline in demand for Eskom electricity. A full analysis of this trend is still required.”
Winkler said there were reasons to be optimistic as Eskom has dealt with the winter period really well.
“We have hopefully just passed the peak of winter, and the fact that this has been achieved at considerably lower stages of load shedding than priorly anticipated is certainly reason for optimism. At the same time, power shortages can develop very quickly, and we are far from out of the woods.
“I would not be surprised if, at some point in the next few months, we are still forced to go to stage 8 load shedding (which is what I predicted earlier this year would become our highest stage of power cuts in 2023).
“Even in spring and early summer, one can potentially experience major power cuts (as happened last year). All in all, I am less worried than I was three months ago.”
Winkler added that Eskom was doing as much as they possibly could to ensure that it keeps its operational plants going.
“Ultimately, it will only succeed in alleviating the long-term power crisis if new generating capacity is made available, something that is largely out of Eskom’s control. Where Eskom has agency is with several internal projects that need to be completed in good time. These are: (a) the rehabilitation of most of the Kusile units and one Medupi unit and (b) the Koeberg nuclear plant life extension. The current operational standstill at all these units adds up to about five stages of load shedding.”
Despite his optimism, Winkler believes that plenty needs to be changed at Eskom.
“This is the same Eskom that people have been cursing and maligning over the last few years. While some people will have come and gone, the organisation, their work mode and strategies remain largely the same – it takes a very long time to change a huge enterprise like Eskom.”
He said the public tended to be overcritical when things were going wrong and sing praises when things ccme right.
“There have always been some very capable and committed individuals within Eskom’s ranks, and right now, their contribution is not being overshadowed by failures elsewhere in the organisation. What we need to look at when evaluating Eskom is long-term trends rather than short-term gains and losses.”
Mashele agrees.
“Eskom needs a myriad of solutions to reduce load shedding or permanently end it,” said Mashele.
“Demand side management (DSM) needs to be an ongoing practice. The Fourways load limiting pilot needs to be extended to the rest of the country. In the short to medium term, Eskom needs to return the three units at Kusile, the one unit each at Koeberg and Medupi, back to service.
However, in the long term, a phased decommissioning process needs to be followed along with a strict adherence to the future IRP rollout.”
Asked whether she felt the Minister of Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, had done a good job so far, Mashele said: “The title of minister of electricity is not relevant, but it does help to have someone accountable for that exact load shedding portfolio.
“(Ramokgopa) has certainly made himself available to address concerns raised by business and residents alike.”
Winkler believes Ramokgopa has done a reasonable job.
“Let us be clear that his ability to make a major difference in solving the electricity crisis is quite limited. The only purpose of this Ministry was to negotiate internal ANC dynamics where the President could not act against an ally (the Minister of Mining and Energy) that had severely misguided ideas on how to deal with the crisis.”
And while many South Africans have recently been forced to consider using gas instead electricity, the Competition Commission has referred a complaint against Sasol Gas to the Competition Tribunal for excessive pricing of natural piped gas in contravention of section 8(1)(a) of the Competition Act.
The commission said it found that Sasol Gas extracted mark-ups of up to 72%. The excessive pricing has continued for almost a decade and is ongoing, it said.
“Natural gas is used as an alternative source of energy to electricity and is used by industrial, commercial, and domestic customers,” the commission said.