How will the economy and markets react to a new government?

Standard Bank CEO Sim Tshabalala and political analyst and entrepreneur, Moeletsi Mbeki have given their thoughts on a new government for SA and its impact on the economy. Graphic: Se-Anne Rall/IOL

Standard Bank CEO Sim Tshabalala and political analyst and entrepreneur, Moeletsi Mbeki have given their thoughts on a new government for SA and its impact on the economy. Graphic: Se-Anne Rall/IOL

Published Jun 6, 2024

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South Africa’s capital markets will rally behind the country once the election processes have been finalised, so says Standard Bank chief executive Sim Tshabalala

As soon as the next government takes office, the bank’s data suggests that the markets will rally, have more stability and perform better.

"I do think that we will have stability," Tshabalala said.

He argued that there will be some teething issues, but in the end, South Africa’s institutions will prevail.

"I have got no doubt that the institutions of South Africa will continue to function."

"South Africa has had 10 elections since 1980. Of those 10 elections, eight have been followed by a rally in equities, in the bond market and in currencies. And the data supports the view that we may have the same happen this time," he explained.

A coalition government

Tshabalala said that Standard Bank's view on the make-up of coalitions is irrelevant.

He said that the bank has no place to express a view on coalitions and what government should take office.

He said that banks have a responsibility and duty to ensure that they can operate maximally in any scenario and government chosen by the voters.

How to stimulate the economy moving forward?

Political analyst and entrepreneur, Moeletsi Mbeki has provided his thoughts on what a new government can do to stimulate the economy.

Mbeki said during a PSG webinar in the aftermath of the May 29 elections that he would advise the next government to scrap SA’s Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policies.

He said that BEE has been the main driver of corruption and inefficiency in SA’s economy and has negatively impacted entrepreneurship.

“Interestingly, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) say it doesn’t agree with this policy, either,” Mbeki said.

Like Tshabalala, he is also optimistic about South Africa’s financial future but goes on to add that the country is not in a crisis.

“South Africa is not off-track. The ANC (African National Congress) government has not brought about a crisis in our society,” Mbeki emphasises.

“The ANC has mismanaged the railway system, the electricity supply system, and discouraged entrepreneurship by BEE policies. However, that doesn’t mean the country is in a crisis,” he explained.

“We have yet to form new parties in South Africa that represent all the social and economic groups,” he said.

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