By Thabile Nkunjana
President Donald Trump's second term in office and his threats should not be taken lightly because he is acting on his promises this time, which should be sufficient for other countries he has mentioned in passing or during conversations. Consider Mexico and Colombia, where Presidents Gustavo Petro and Claudia Sheinbaum may have interpreted Trump's remarks lightly before his directives were issued.
In reference to South Africa in particular, Trump recently declared that he was stopping aid to the country while an inquiry was to be conducted, citing "human rights violations." The most crucial prerequisite for African countries to be eligible for the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) is that their human rights must be in line with its provisions.
On February 7, 2025, Trump signed an executive order titled "addressing egregious actions of the Republic of South Africa" to demonstrate his seriousness about his stunts over what he considers to be a human rights violation in South Africa.
Different opinions from those of Trump or his administration might put any country in real trouble at this rate, regardless of whether you are an ally, or neighbour of the US. This is also true for South Africa especially when one considered trade between the countries.
South Africa’s global trade
Like many developing countries, South Africa's economy is based primarily on exports, and the country has been importing and exporting products ranging from natural resources to agricultural products, becoming more and more integrated with some of the world's most powerful economies over the past 30 years. The top trading countries with South Africa are listed below, based on data from the World Trade Organisation, the UN Conference on Trade & Development, and the International Trade Centre.
As of 2023, South Africa’s overall exports to the world amounted to R2 trillion, and China (R230.3 billion) was the largest market with a share of 11%. US (R155.5 bn) was the second-largest market with a share of 8%, followed by Germany (R144.2 bn) (7%), Mozambique (R114bn) (6%), Japan (R106bn) (5%), UK (R97bn) (5%), India (R93bn) (5%), Netherlands (R79.3bn) (4%), Botswana (R77.3bn) (4%) and Belgium (R68.7bn) (3%).
South Africa imported R1.9trl worth of products globally in 2023. China (R404.4bn) (20%), US (R169.7bn) (9%), Germany (R160.2bn) (8%), India (R137.8bn) (7%), the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (R73.7bn) (4%), Thailand (R64.5bn) (3%), Saudi Arabia (R57.1bn) (3%), Japan (R49.9bn) (3%), Oman (R47.1bn) (2%), and Italy (R44.4bn) (2%), were the top suppliers of all the products that South Africa imported.
South Africa’s overall trades with US
As previously stated, the US is South Africa's second-most important trading partner, which is significant for South Africa given the volume of products it buys and sells to the US. However, it's crucial to remember that South Africa's trade with the America for US’s benefit is negligible.
For instance, only 0.4% of the R37.2trl in global exports made by the US in 2023 went to South Africa, in contrast with 8% of South Africa's exports to the US during the same year. In 2023, South Africa was ranked number 41 out of more than 200 destinations for US exports.
As a result, the US would hardly notice if it stopped trading with South Africa, but South Africa would not feel the same way. In terms of trade, this makes it obvious who needs more than whom.
Vehicles, nuclear reactors, minerals, electrical machinery, and aeroplanes are among the top products that the USA exports to South Africa, while the top products that South Africa exports to the US are precious stones, automobile parts and accessories, aluminium, nuclear reactors, iron, steel, ores, slag, and ash, to mention a few.
South Africa’s agricultural trade with US
The agriculture sector is a major benefactor of trade between the two countries through the Agoa. According to trade map data, South Africa's agricultural exports to the US accounted for at least 4% of the country's $13.2bn (R244bn) total agricultural exports in 2023.
The leading agricultural products that South Africa exported to US in 2023 were oranges with US accounting for 8% of all fresh oranges exported by South Africa to the world. Other top agricultural products exported to the US included mandarins (11%), macadamia nuts (27%), wine (8%), ice cream (62%), sugar (9%), dried grapes (18%), apple juice (68%), peaches (16%), and grapefruit juice (16%).
Leading agricultural imports by South Africa from USA included poultry with USA accounting for 28% of South Africa’s total poultry imports in 2023, almonds (95%), whiskies (11%), cattle livers (57%), grain sorghum (33%), and maize seed (29%) to name a few.
Agricultural exports from South Africa to the US by province
In terms of value, 49% of South Africa's total agricultural exports to the US between 2018 and 2022 came from the Western Cape. In 2022, the Western Cape province exported R4.7bn worth of agricultural goods to the US, which made up 54% of all South Africa's agricultural exports to the US. Mpumalanga was the second largest beneficiary by province (R1.27bn) followed by Gauteng (R894 million), Eastern Cape (R593m), and KwaZulu-Natal (R549m) in 2022. Other provinces had small share of their products exported to the US with North-West the least beneficiary.
In closing, over time, South Africa's international trade has grown. From R1.3trl to R2.0trl, the countries’ total exports grew by 56% between 2019 and 2023. For the same period, South Africa's total exports to the US climbed from R90.8bn to R155.5bn, a 71% rise.
Specific to agriculture, South Africa's agricultural exports to the US have increased overall, rising from R5.2bn in 2019 to R9.1bn in 2023. At least 4% of South Africa's total agricultural exports to the world as of 2023 went to the US.
Even though trade has benefited both countries, South Africa stands to lose the most if trade relations deteriorate. With only 1.5% to 1.6% economic growth predicted between now and 2026, South Africa would be worse off.
It is imperative that the current state of affairs in South Africa be handled with extreme caution. This holds true for lobbyists and political figures nationwide because no one will be exempt from the economic consequences if South Africa loses AGOA.
Nkunjana is a senior agricultural economist with the National Agricultural Marketing Council's trade research unit. He writes in his personal capacity.
BUSINESS REPORT